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10% Theory

Published on Apr.4 ,2014 : The Denki shinbun(The Electric Daily News)
Dr. Michio Ishikawa
Chief Adviser(Former President & CEO of JANTI

I'm not talking about consumption tax.

I'm talking about the food chain of plants and animals that live in the ocean. I forgot the name but there is a book written by a prominent geophysicist by the name of Hitoshi Takeuchi.

In his book it states that every year approximately 50 billion tons of phytoplankton is born in the ocean with the help of the sun's rays, and is eaten by 5 billion tons of zooplankton, approximately 1/10 the amount of phytoplankton. This zooplankton is in turn consumed by 500 million tons of small fish, which is eaten by 50 million tons of larger fish. In the ocean animals and plants live within a food chain hierarchy for which each level is 10% that of the one above thereby maintaining a natural balance. However on land humans have completely destroyed this ratio, and specific figures are unknown.

So, let me explain my take on this. On land the sun's light is responsible for production of approximately 130 billion tons of plant life each year. If we liken this to phytoplankton and apply the 10% theory, then there should be 13 billion tons of “zooplankton,” or in other words, the bugs and caterpillars that eat this plant life. Continuing further there should be 1.3 billion tons of small animals and birds that eat these insects, and then 130 million tons of larger animals that eat these smaller animals.

This is where humans come in. For the sake of our estimate let’s say that the weight of a human is 50 kilograms.

During the age of hunting and gathering more than 20,000 years ago there were a little less than 10 million humans on the earth. The mass of this population was 0.5 million tons, less than 1% of the population of large animals. During their reign on earth with the lord of creation, even if they preyed on larger animals they didn't disrupt the natural balance. On the other hand, if they weren't successful in hunting they would starve to death. At this point in our history average life expectancy was 20 years, thereby illustrating the instability of food supply.

During the agricultural age 300 years ago, prior to the Industrial Revolution, food supply stabilized and the population of the earth increased by approximately 400 million. The total mass of this population was 20 million tons, thereby putting humans at the top of the food chain. They ate chickens and sheep without disrupting the natural order and relied on the sun's energy for an average lifespan of 40 years.

The population is now seven billion. The total mass of this population is 350 million tons, thereby making humans even outside the “large animal” category of the food chain. However, because of our size in the natural order of things humans are categorized into small animals and should be eating bugs and caterpillars.

But this is largely different from reality. Even though our social position in nature is that of a small animal, we live in luxury eating steaks and sashimi. We eat larger animals and live an average of 70 years. And, if we were even to suggest that humans should be eating caterpillars and bugs they would raise their eyebrows in anger and ostracize us from the human community.

What made this unreasonable reality possible is the fact that humans are able to use foods that other animals cannot. Namely artificial energy.

It is unexpectedly scarcely known that energy and food are the same thing. The proof is in the units that we use to describe them. The unit of electricity is kilowatt hour which can be converted into calories, which is the unit for food. It's not surprising when you think that we grow vegetables by using electric light.

Since the Industrial Revolution mankind has increased its numbers by using artificial energy such as coal, oil, nuclear power. We have developed civilization, extended our lifespans, and spread across the planet. Soon there will be 10 billion of us.

For this population to live peaceably we need enough food and a stable energy supply for everyone. If we run short a cutthroat battle for survival will begin. In order to avoid this battle we must rely on nuclear power to produce large volumes of stable energy.

Energy is an intrinsically dangerous thing. If we didn't use it we wouldn't have to worry about accidents and disasters. However, using this energy is the destiny of plants and animals, the fate of life on this planet.

The consumption of fossil fuels brought about global warming. Recently there has been much abnormal weather on the planet, and many disasters. Natural energy is inefficient, unstable, and expensive whereas nuclear power creates radiation.

However, while the tsunami claimed approximately 18,000 souls, the nuclear disaster didn't claim any. People don't like nuclear power but the damage from radiation is miniscule. It's been three years since the accident. It's time to start thinking with a cool head.

Deng Xiao Ping strayed from communism when he said, “It doesn't matter if a cat is white or black, if it catches mice it's a good cat” and subsequently grew the economy. The same goes for energy. If you're picky about what you eat you'll lose your health.

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